Major Shift Coming for Lake Real Estate Amid NAR Settlement & Unofficial Housing Recession

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

As the U.S. housing market contends with an unofficial recession and the impact of the NAR (National Association of Realtors) commission lawsuit settlement, the lake real estate market is showing resilience.

The settlement, which took effect on August 17th, significantly alters how real estate agents conduct transactions across the country. Despite these sweeping changes and challenging market conditions, the lake real estate market is strong, with a slight uptick anticipated for the remainder of 2024.

This fall offers a broader selection of properties. The Fall 2024 Lake Real Estate Market Report by Lake Homes Realty indicates there are now 104,503 lake home and lot listings, an increase of 14,961 from the 89,542 listings available in fall 2023.

But that’s not all—the total market value of these listings now stands at $59.42 billion, highlighting a strengthening market with significant investment potential. This marks a positive shift from the $49.85 billion reported in Fall 2023. With more options and a rising market, this fall offers an ideal opportunity for buyers to discover their dream lakefront property.

Lake Real Estate to Outrun Housing Recession? Data Points to YES!

The broader housing market may be weathering a storm, however, Glenn S. Phillips sees lake real estate as a sturdy lighthouse, standing strong against the turbulent waters. As CEO and Chief Economic Analyst for Lake Homes Realty, Phillips expects, “lake real estate and other discretionary housing to break out of this lull faster than most primary residential markets.”

With mortgage interest rates expected to drop this fall, Phillips frequently hears the question: Will this lead to more real estate deals? His surprising reply: “No, not for lake homes.” What makes him so sure of this? Well, he points out lake home buyers often pay cash with over 50% of Lake Homes Realty’s transactions nationwide not involving a mortgage. In addition,“buyers who can afford these properties and desire a mortgage can often get the best rates anyway.”

Looking ahead, the remaining months of 2024 will witness a modest uptick in lake property sales. Phillips attributes the modesty of this increase to several factors, such as anticipation of election results, fewer real estate contracts written from the week of Thanksgiving through the end of the year, and that the turn to more appropriate list prices has only just begun.

In contrast, a more significant increase of at least 15% is anticipated in 2025 for year-over-year transactions. Phillips notes, “More owners are ready to sell, and they are becoming more realistic instead of ‘overly aspirational’ in their pricing. In other words, they will be more serious about actually selling instead of dreaming (falsely) of a big profit.”

Finally, Phillips attributes this expected increase in lake properties for sale to what he refers to as the “many D’s”, including “death, divorce, debt, dreams and distraction (on to a new lifestyle), disability and dementia (aging homeowners no longer suited for lake activities), downsizing, distance (tired of the drive to this second home), and diamonds (a new marriage may call for a different home).” After years of anticipation, all the necessary factors seem to be converging, prompting many lake homeowners to finally abandon their hesitation and sell.

Welcoming the NAR Lawsuit Settlement

As mentioned previously, the NAR commission lawsuit settlement recently went into effect August 17. The lawsuit is expected to reduce real estate agents’ commissions, which may lead to savings for homeowners.

The impact of the settlement on lake real estate “will take a few months to evaluate,” Phillips acknowledges. However, he anticipates that the lake real estate market will be less affected. It’s a unique perspective, given that a significant portion of the real estate industry appears to be flailing after this settlement was reached.

Why lake real estate will be less affected are the same reasons the lake real estate market is resilient during this unofficial housing recession: lake home buyers and sellers are financially equipped to pay for quality real estate agent services and are more inclined to seek expert guidance.

“They don’t hire the cheapest attorneys or look for the cheapest doctors,” Phillips noted, “and they understand that a true expert in any financial transaction can more than cover their costs.”
The impact of this settlement is that agents who fail to provide genuine value may have no choice but to leave the industry.

As the nation’s leading lake real estate brokerage, Lake Homes Realty possesses extensive data on thousands of lake markets nationwide. This exclusive information, unavailable to any other brokerages, companies, or analysts, enables the brokerage’s agents to serve as trusted local authorities on market trends and consumer behavior.

Returning to a ‘Softer’ Seller’s Market

Data from LakeHomes.com suggests a potential shift towards a more balanced “softer” seller’s market for lake properties. The number of listings is steadily increasing, but more interestingly, average list prices have dipped for the first time in months.

If these trends hold, the market will be conducive to more transactions. It’s too early to say for sure – two more months of data will reveal if this is a temporary fluctuation or a longer-term trend signifying increased market activity.

Just like in previous years, overpriced properties remain a hurdle, regardless of marketing efforts. MLS listings and websites like LakeHomes.com ensure broad exposure to buyers. So, a lack of offers doesn’t stem from a lack of visibility. Savvy buyers simply won’t waste time on properties that aren’t priced competitively or within negotiation range. They’ll wait for a better deal, potentially for years.

Top Lake Real Estate Markets Nationwide

This fall, Puget Sound leads with the most extensive selection of properties, boasting a total value of $1.74 billion in lakefront, lake view, and lake access properties across Washington State, according to Lake Homes Realty’s Fall 2024 Lake Real Estate Market Report.

Following Puget Sound, homebuyers seeking lakefront living have numerous options across the country. Other top contenders include:

According to the quarterly report, seventeen states serviced by Lake Homes Realty had over one billion dollars in lake home and lot real estate listings. This remarkable growth is further enhanced by the arrival of two new contenders: Oklahoma and New Hampshire.

Leading the way is Texas with a total of $11.3 billion in listings, followed by Florida with $6.1 billion, and Washington State in third place with $5.3 billion. The other $1 billion+ states in order include North Carolina ($3.507 billion), Minnesota ($3.418 billion), Michigan ($3.112 billion), Georgia ($3.054 billion), Tennessee ($3.048 billion), Alabama ($1.933 billion), South Carolina ($1.760 billion), Missouri ($1.657 billion), Idaho ($1.651 billion), Illinois ($1.593 billion), New York ($1.584 billion), Arkansas ($1.536 billion), Oklahoma ($1.068 billion), and New Hampshire ($1.035 billion).

In terms of the total number of listings, Texas leads with 19,970 lake home and lot listings, followed by Florida (11,212), Tennessee (7,070), Minnesota (5,605), North Carolina (5,443), Georgia (5,044), and Michigan (4,692).

For the most expensive lake home averages, the top five lakes are in Florida, Washington, Montana, and North Carolina. In Florida, Lake Vedra and Lake Butler lead, averaging $5.227 million and $4.054 million, respectively.

Lake Washington in Washington averages $3.922 million, Whitefish Lake in Montana averages $3.160 million, and Lake Toxaway in North Carolina averages around $2.983 million. Among all the homes and lots featured on LakeHomes.com, the average price is $568,580.

Top 10 States for Lake Property Listings

Top 5 Most Expensive Lakes for Home Listings (Average Price)

Lake Vedra, FL – Avg. of $5,277,077
Lake Butler, FL – Avg. of $4,054,977
Lake Washington, WA – Avg. of $3,922,363
Whitefish Lake, MT – Avg. of $3,160,632
Lake Toxaway – Avg. of $2,983,136

Top 5 Lakes for Number of Home and Lot Listings

Puget Sound, WA – 1,711
Lake of The Ozarks, MO – 1,674
Lewisville Lake, TX – 1,447
Canyon Lake, TX – 1,257
Lake Norman, NC – 1,255

The Fall 2024 Lake Real Estate Market Report shares a summary of data collected from 146 Multiple Listing Services (MLS) areas in the 36 states served by Lake Homes Realty and is, to its knowledge, not available from any other source.

Copies of the Fall 2024 Lake Real Estate Market Report are now available to download for free at www.lakehomes.com/report.